Week 1 Totals Breakdown
Welcome to our inaugural pick post for the upcoming NFL season. Every new season brings hope and anticipation as we head into Week 1. By midafternoon, many of you will probably be second‑guessing your bets, your fantasy lineup, or your team’s chances to win it all. No worries — I’ll be right there with you.
How to read our breakdowns
Game: NFL season game number Away Team / Home Team: Teams playing the game Away Projected / Home Projected: Our point projections for each team Projected Total: Our projected combined score for both teams Vegas Total: The current market total at time of writing Confidence: Historical likelihood that this total produces the desired result. For example, if we choose the under on a 44.5 total and historically games with that line hit the under 56% of the time, our confidence reflects that edge. Pick: Our over/under selection Edge: Difference (in points) between our projected total and the market total. For betting purposes we consider only edges of at least 3 points from the spread. Bet Size: Number of units recommended to wager My picks for Week 1
New Orleans at Detroit — UNDER 49.5 Edge: 4.57 points Units: 2
Analysis: On paper this game looks tilted toward Detroit. I expect most scoring to come from Detroit, while New Orleans has yet to show it can consistently move the ball for a second consecutive year. The public leans toward a Lions’ advantage; for the under to cash we need New Orleans’ defense to limit big plays and force Detroit into a methodical, clock‑consuming approach. The matchup profile and our projection support the under.
New York Jets at Tennessee — OVER 39 Edge: 4.16 points Units: 2
Analysis: This may seem counterintuitive — both teams appear flawed — yet historically a 39 total has produced the over at a strong clip (about 57.8%). Based on tendencies and our projection, we expect roughly 43 combined points. We’ll play the over with that expectation.
Arizona at Los Angeles Chargers — UNDER 47 Edge: 3.07 points Units: 1
Analysis: This is a tentative play. Arizona is under a new head coach and remains an unknown quantity; the possible absence of Jeremiah Love would notably weaken their offense. The Chargers have elite talent at quarterback but have often underwhelmed in scoring. Given those factors, we favor the under but treat this as a lower‑confidence wager.
Green Bay at Minnesota — UNDER 46 Edge: 4.98 points Units: 2
Analysis: This is one of our stronger plays. There’s been talk about Kyler Murray starting for Minnesota, but remember his struggles leading a poor Cardinals offense last year. Green Bay will be without Josh Jacobs; the running‑back depth behind him is underwhelming. If the Packers can establish the run, the game may become more one‑dimensional. Brian Flores’ defensive scheme for Minnesota should be prepared to game‑plan against Jordan Love. We like the under for Week 1.
Final note
Good luck to everyone betting this weekend. Bet responsibly — have fun and only wager what you can afford to lose.